Umar Juoro

Benefiting from the Presidential Elections

VIVAnews - The presidential elections will take place within no more than a week now. The elections will certainly bring positive impacts to the nation's economy.

It is projected that the nation would have secure, transparent and better elections, compared to the parliamentary elections.

Second, economic players in in the financial sectors figured that incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) would be re-elected.

Second-round election is not a serious issue.

While the neighboring countries were crushed by the global crisis, the elections will be beneficial for Indonesia .

In addition, the neighboring countries are also affected by their high dependency on exports. Taking Thailand as an example, domestic political turmoil turned down the nation's stability.

SBY-Boediono pair promised to continue the political policies which have been implemented during the past five years by emphasizing on a clean government. The current progress will be improved putting the stress on the implementation of infrastructure development, industrial revitalization, agricultural development and employment creation.

The approach is predictable so business community and the general public will have clearer comprehension of the future plan taking into account the five-year Yudhoyono administration.

Certainly, other candidates, Jusuf Kalla (JK)-Wiranto and Megawati-Prabowo, still have a chance. They still could win the election.

JK's economic program is not much different from Yudhoyono's as they have been working out economic policies and programs in the past five years together.

It was only that JK accentuated more on domestic roles having economic independence as his theme.

Unlike Yudhoyono, clean government and conflict of interests between the government and entrepreneurs are not really highlighted.

Meanwhile, Megawati and Prabowo seem to have an economic program which is significantly different from other candidates. The couple plans to launch debt restructuring and reduce foreign roles in the economy.

Therefore, there are a lot of foreign investors who are concerned about Mega-Pro's program because it has big implications toward the Indonesian economy. The approach is indeed heroic but very risky. Emphasizing on democratic economy is surely positive but has also become a concern of other candidates.

Another issue is concerned with the forming of the future cabinet if Yudhoyono is re-elected. He will possibly practice more assertive leadership and form a more professional cabinet, especially in the economic field.

But, will Yudhoyono include members of top parties? The existence of Golkar or PDIP members in his cabinet will determine the relationship between the government and the House of Representatives (DPR). They will certainly support the cooperation between the two.

However, if PDIP and Golkar both become oppositions, it will be hard for the government to gain DPR's support regarding various economic policies and programs.

In the next five years, politics may benefit the Indonesian economy. Indonesia is in a better position to take advantages from the recovery of global economics, especially in exports and investment.

Now, it depends on how much the potentials can be realized. Therefore, the fine economic policies should be continued and are applied more firmly, more thoroughly and more quickly.

In the future, Indonesian economic development must be prepared hand in hand with the democratic development. With the gross domestic product of about US$2000 per capita, we expect that in the next five years, the figure will be close to US$3000.



The analysis was extracted from a paper presented by Umar Juoro, a CIDES economist, at the “Assessing the rationality of Presidential Candidates' Program” discussion at the Nikko Hotel on Friday, June 26.

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29 Maret 2024